Analysis Meat
2024 was an eventful year in the meat markets
2024 turned out to be an eventful year for the meat sector. December was also a volatile month. While beef takes another step up, the pork price drops again. Meanwhile, the poultry meat market remains remarkably stable.
The beef price clearly has the highest prices in relative terms. The U-quality is traded for €5.33 per kilo. Meanwhile, the P-quality is €3.65 and the second worst quality is €2.80 per kilo.
So far, the absence of Christmas demand does not lead to very low prices. This has little to do with consumption. The demand for luxury parts will decrease in the coming days, making the valorization of the whole carcass difficult. However, due to the high cattle prices, it will be difficult to lower the prices to stimulate demand. It is expected that the sales of sausages and other minced products will continue to go well in the coming weeks.
Usually, beef prices take a step down in the week of Christmas. This anticipates a lower supply in the market, and at the same time, a lower number of slaughters due to holiday closures helps to push the price down. The fact that prices have not decreased yet is mainly due to a tight supply. It is still difficult to obtain cattle of all qualities. Luxurious meat cattle are still scarce, as availability from France is still moderate. The supply of dairy cattle is still relatively weak, as milk prices do not encourage slaughtering less productive cattle.
Pork market ends on a low note
The pork market ended this year on a rather low note. In the summer, the pork price peaked at €2.18, but since then there has been significant price pressure. The price remained stable in the run-up to Christmas, but in the week before, the pork price dropped by 4 cents. Compared to the peak in the summer, the pork price decreased by 33 cents to €1.85 per kilo.
For the pork market, 2024 was clearly an eventful year. In the beginning of the year, the pork market, like in 2023, was still clearly in favor of pig farmers. Later in the year, the dynamics shifted, and slaughter prices decreased significantly more than meat prices. Throughout the year, slaughter prices decreased by 5.56 cents. This enabled slaughterhouses to obtain a significantly better position compared to a year ago.
Slaughterhouses have taken advantage of the increased supply in recent months. This increased supply is the major difference between the first and second half of the year. While the market was tight in the first part, the supply clearly increased in the second half. This was not the case in the Netherlands. In the Netherlands, the slaughter figure remained just below the level of 2023 throughout the year. However, due to a significantly higher number of slaughters in almost all European countries, including the crucial consumer country Germany, this was hardly noticeable. Additionally, the demand in the European market is low. In most Northern European countries, the demand for pork has significantly decreased in recent years, allowing slaughterhouses to seize the opportunity.
2024 favored the poultry meat market
The poultry meat market was clearly the stable engine this year. In the beginning of the year, the price was clearly below last year's level, but since the summer, the slaughter price has been noticeably higher. Since week 44, the price has remained at the same level, at €1.09.
In 2024, the broiler price was quite strong, but there were no real outliers as in previous years. The winter demand stands out. Normally, the broiler price decreases at the end of winter. This year, the decrease was mild. Between week 42 and week 44, the broiler price decreased by 10 cents. The previous year, the decrease between week 42 and 48 was stronger at 13 cents. The poultry market gained this strong position due to higher demand. Typically, consumers eat less chicken and more red meat in winter. The growing popularity of chicken seems to dampen this winter pattern.
A potential decrease would need to come from the supply side of the market. Given the structural decrease in Dutch supply, it would have to come from imports. There is no signal of that yet. The Polish poultry prices are not at a level that makes exports attractive. Currently, Polish prices range between 4.70 zloty (€1.10) and 4.90 zloty (€1.15).
Matthijs Bremer
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