Analysis Pigs & Pork
German pork market continues to move sideways
While the main export markets of our eastern neighbors are experiencing some volatility, the German pig price remains stable. Traders are aiming for higher prices, but slaughterhouses indicate that demand is still tepid. This seems to be mainly due to structurally lower demand. A small increase in the slaughter figure compared to last year seems sufficient to prevent pressure on supply.
The German market has remained fairly stable in recent weeks. The VEZG has been recording a price of €2.00 for the sixth consecutive week.
This stability is quite remarkable. In important markets where Germany imports pigs and pork from, movement is visible. For example, the Danish price decreased by 5 cents in the same period, and the Dutch price was slightly supported by scarcity with an increase of 1 cent. In the Polish market, prices also increased by 1 cent a week later than in the Netherlands.
Rearguard action
While prices may remain stable in our eastern neighbors, it does not mean that the increases have gone unnoticed. German trade media report that traders are aiming for a small increase in pig prices. However, slaughterhouses indicate that they are not in favor of this. They mention that slaughter capacity can hardly be increased due to a lack of personnel. In addition, they say that demand is weak. Although the end of the school holidays has led to a slight increase in demand, German producers still speak of a quiet market.
Meanwhile, the supply is lower than usual but higher than last year. In weeks 36 and 37, the German slaughter figure was around 735,000 pigs. This is significantly below the five-year average of around 781,000 pigs. However, compared to 2023, the supply has increased slightly. In that year, the supply in week 36 was only 716,000 pigs, and in week 37, 324,000 pigs were slaughtered. Although the pig supply is historically low, the market does not seem particularly tight compared to demand. It appears that such an increase is sufficient to meet German demand due to the structural decline in German demand and the limited European exports.
Slaughter figure decreases, sow herd increases
The increase in the slaughter figure, despite a slight decrease in the pig herd compared to 2023, is not entirely unexpected. Recent data from Destatis shows that the German pig herd shrank in May 2024 compared to the November 2023 census. The total pig herd decreased by 0.3% from 21.23 million pigs to 21.17 million pigs. The number of fattening pigs decreased more in this period, by 1.2% from 9.56 million pigs to 9.45 million pigs. However, there is a slight increase in the sow herd. The May count shows that the number of sows increased by 1%, from just under 1.40 million sows to over 1.41 million sows. This is a sign that the pig herd is poised to increase slightly from May onwards.
German market continues to consolidate
Furthermore, the German pig market continues to consolidate. Recent data published by Destatis shows that the number of pig farms in Germany has decreased by 2.5% to 15,400 farms. This means that the number of German pig farmers has decreased by 400 farms. In 2022, the decline accelerated. In that year, Germany still had 17,900 pig farms. Since then, the number of pig farms has decreased by 11.5%, or 2,100 farms.
