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Fear of declining contract price for potatoes

November 22, 2024 - Niels van der Boom

The French potato growers' organization UNPT warns potato processors not to let the contract prices for the 2025/26 season drop. The organization points to increasing costs of potato cultivation for fries, which, according to them, should rise again. This would be for the fourth year in a row.

The last potatoes have barely been put away and there is already discussion and speculation about the contract prices for the upcoming harvest year. Sunday, November 24, the potato trade fair Interpom starts in the Belgian city of Kortrijk. Traditionally, this is the moment for the first Belgian processors to announce their contract price for the off-land period. This will give us an indication of the sentiment for the 2025/26 season among buyers.

Necessity of 2 to 3 percent increase
UNPT (l'Union Nationales des Producteurs de Pommes de Terre) takes a stand by issuing a press release. In it, UNPT states that contract prices for the next season must rise by an average of 2% to 3% to cover the costs for growers. According to new figures from the growers' organization, these costs will increase again next year.

"Since 2019, the cost of potato cultivation has increased and is now four times higher than that of wheat," UNPT states. "Half of these costs come from mechanization and seed potatoes." The organization sees contracts as a good tool to guarantee minimum prices, but they must be aligned with practice and move along with the trend of rising production costs.

Healthy margin
The lack of more and more crop protection products and climate extremes are causing yields and quality to fluctuate more and more. The contract prices - for both table and fries and starch potatoes - should reflect that, according to the organization. With a healthy margin for the farmer, they can invest in, among other things, mechanization and product storage, but also adapt to environmental goals such as reducing CO2 emissions.

UNPT calls on all stakeholders in the potato chain to take the higher cultivation costs into account in their contracts for the upcoming season. Processors are likely to keep their cards close to their chest for about eight more weeks when it comes to the prices for the main harvest of 2025. Which direction it will move in is also difficult for insiders to estimate. A price increase for the fourth year in a row is exceptional, but not impossible.

No alternatives
On the other hand, processors usually have enough potatoes available this season. With the additional factories and production lines, they also do not need a shrinking acreage in 2025. With a moderate sentiment for crops like wheat and sugar beets, arable farmers do not have many alternatives, and potato cultivation (for fries) remains attractive. Factories know that.

In the past three years, contract prices have risen explosively, with an average of 22% for Fontane and 20.5% for Innovator. It should be noted that this past season was 'only' 6.5% to 7%. In that light, a 2% to 3% increase is not an excessive demand. It amounts to €0.50 to €0.80 per 100 kilograms when using Dutch and Belgian contract prices as a reference.

Niels van der Boom

Niels van der Boom is a senior market specialist in potatoes and other soft commodities at DCA Market Intelligence.
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