How dry is it in the potato cultivation areas?

The drought in our country is about to break the record from 1976. It is also extremely dry in other European countries. The situation is often even more critical than here. What impact does this have on potato crops in the EU-4 and Poland?

For the Netherlands, the precipitation deficit has now risen to 87 millimeters. The KNMI expects this to increase to almost 140 millimeters in the coming weeks, which is well above the old record of 1976. There are small regional differences. Especially the coastal regions of the Netherlands - from Den Helder to Sluis - are turning dark brown. Since the beginning of March, only a few tens of millimeters have fallen in most cases.

This line can be extended at least to Le Havre or maybe even further south in France. In France, an average of 88 millimeters fell last month, but even here the west side is very dry. Belgium received an average of 47 millimeters and the Netherlands only 30 millimeters (compared to 40 on average).

Blockade
Northwest Europe is currently under the influence of a strong high-pressure area that is blocking the showers. Where do they fall then? Spain and Italy are being 'well' blessed with precipitation, as has been the case throughout the spring. According to meteorologists, this high-pressure area will remain present throughout this week, before slowly shifting westward. A low-pressure area may bring more changeable weather at the end of May. Some significant rainfall is expected, but not the tens of millimeters needed to alleviate the drought situation.

Potato growers are watching the weather developments with mixed feelings. On the one hand, they fear for the development of their crops. On the other hand, they hope that drought could lead to a turnaround in the potato market, which continues to decline. Apparently, that swamp is far from being drained.

The current situation is not yet critical for the main harvest. The plants are just emerging and relying on the little moisture that remains and what is in the tuber. In this vegetative phase, the plants can cope with relatively little moisture. It will be different once the regenerative phase begins. However, a poor tuber setting is expected. The opposite of last year.

Early potatoes
Early potatoes have been planted on time all over Europe. Not only in the prime areas (Palatinate, Tholen, Bordeaux, West Flanders) but also in other places, the seed potatoes were planted early. The emergence was good, but now rain is needed to achieve a reasonable yield. A combination of many hours of sunshine, temperature, and the early planting date results in the first non-firm early potatoes being available for sale again.

A lack of moisture is not the only challenge for the crops. A dry east wind and low relative humidity are also not ideal for growth. Local frost occurred last week. While temperatures may rise well above 20 degrees during the day this week, it is still quite cool at night. Other crops like onions are also affected. Their development is not progressing very quickly, according to growers. This is especially noticeable in Poland. It has been dry there for some time, and temperatures are relatively low. This trend is expected to continue in the coming weeks.

The dry spring followed a dry winter. Groundwater reserves are exceptionally low as a result. This is particularly evident in the shrinking river sizes. The level of the Rhine has halved compared to last year.

Record yield?
The last time it was this dry in the spring was in 2022 when an average of 104 millimeters fell in our country. 2018 is still fresh in memory, but that spring was very wet. 2011 is another relatively recent year that was very dry with only 49 millimeters in the three spring months. So far this spring, there have been 36 millimeters. Ultimately, the harvest year 2011 did not turn out negatively. In the Netherlands, an average of over 53 tons per hectare was harvested, a record that was not even surpassed in 2017. This was mainly due to an exceptionally wet summer that ultimately balanced things out.

Looking at the EU-4, a good hectare yield is also visible in 2011, but not a record. Since 2018, the averages have been significantly lower than in the period before that. Perhaps due to weather extremes and other factors, the top yields of the past may not be achievable again soon. A larger potato volume mainly comes from breadth (more hectares) rather than height (more kilos per hectare).

Potato crop can recover significantly
The impact of drought on crops is evident. Does this directly translate to a poor harvest? Not necessarily. Past experience shows that a potato crop can recover significantly when significant rainfall occurs at the right time (end of July/beginning of August). This has happened more frequently in the last twenty-five years. Traditionally, drought is a good flavor enhancer for the potato market. However, there is no sign of that yet. Processors are (still) not receptive to it. The mood in the french fry market has sunk so low that the situation in the field has not yet had an impact. Furthermore, factories still have a surplus of storage potatoes. These may be crucial in three months for the transition to the new processing season.

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