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Analysis Potato

Futures market April 2025 heading towards 35 euros

May 23, 2024 - By our team of market reporters

That we live in different times when it comes to the pricing of the potato market is a fact. For example, in harvest year 2018, Innovator delivery week 17 in 2019 was contracted for less than €14.50, this season (delivery week 17 2025) it is €27.50. A similar trend can be seen on the potato futures market. A price level of €30 plus was seen as the highest achievable or there really had to be a problem.

Today, €45 is certainly achievable. This is evident from the price developments of harvest year 2023 with a current futures market quotation for the June contract at €45. Even now, with the summer months approaching, the April 2025 contract is almost €35.

The reason for the firm tone of the new harvest has been discussed extensively (including a later spring). However, the question is whether records will be broken again in the coming months. A record would be if the futures market for harvest 2024 could already rise above the €40 level by mid-summer. An impetus for this could be if the summer hits hard in terms of drought and temperature. What will be the effect on the painstakingly planted potato crops?

Pricing
Already, one can start looking at harvest year 2026 with a critical eye. What contract price level should be linked to the increasing cultivation and harvest risks. After all, no season seems to be without extremes anymore. There is nothing wrong with the current contract prices, but then the potatoes must be deliverable. This may be difficult for some spreadsheet procurement managers to grasp. In that sense, you could say that the phenomenon of the potato futures market is a great tool, as it acts as a kind of expansion tank.

As indicated, the pressure on the potato market for the 2024/25 season is already such that the gauge on the expansion tank is almost hitting €35. This level also offers excellent opportunities for pool managers or growers with hedging and/or click contracts. This price is almost 25% above the average contract price level.

The final question is whether contracting unlimitedly at what feels like high contract prices without much consideration for the cultivation risks is the future. The entrepreneur will say no, the person who insures around may see it differently.

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