Analysis Grains

Independence Day draws more attention than weather

July 5, 2024 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Wheat on the Matif in Paris showed a cautious recovery yesterday. The closure of the American market did not really help to create some excitement. Ukraine came with new figures about transportation on the Black Sea and the weather was once again the driving force in the grain market.

The September contract for wheat on the Matif closed €2.25 higher at €225.50 per ton yesterday. On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the market was closed. With parades, picnics, and fireworks, yesterday was celebrated as the Fourth of July, also known as the American Independence Day.

The Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and at the mouth of the Danube had more activity in the first half of this year than in the same period last year. The handling increased by 68%, as reported by Reuters news agency. In the past six months, 52.7 million tons of goods were processed compared to 31.3 million tons a year earlier. The majority of this, namely 63%, concerns agricultural goods.

In Western Europe, the weather has not yet turned in favor of the wheat harvest. After a brief dry period last week, the weather is back to being wet as usual. According to the weather forecasts, there will be no change in the next two weeks. Where rain could be useful, for example in Romania, there is no rain in the forecast for the coming days, and where it could use some dry weather (France, Germany, the UK, and the Benelux), more rain is on the way.

Despite Independence Day being an official holiday in the US, the wheat harvest is not completely halted there. In the wheat belt on the southern prairies, it is dry. Wheat has already been largely harvested there, so that is not such a problem for the yields of the current harvest. It's a different story in the corn belt. A significant portion of Illinois is highlighted on the new drought monitor.

Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Jurphaas Lugtenburg is a market specialist in onions, carrots, and commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybeans at DCA Market Intelligence. He combines his degree in business administration with a passion for farming.

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