The global milk production will continue to increase in the coming decades, but the growth will not occur in the European Union. In India and Pakistan, on the other hand, a significant increase is expected. This is evident from the latest estimate of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook until 2033.
It indicates that global milk production will grow by 1.6% per year. In 10 years, the global milk pool will have grown to 1,085 million tons. Half of the growth will take place in India and Pakistan, mainly driven by higher production per cow. It is expected that 30% of global milk production will take place in these countries in 10 years.
In the European Union, production is likely to decrease slightly. This is due to political measures and a shift from conventional to organic dairy farming. Oceania and North America are still expected to see a slight increase. The demand for dairy products will also continue to rise. This is mainly due to income growth in emerging countries in Asia. India and Pakistan will be among the leaders not only in production but also in consumption.
Although the global dairy landscape is changing, the European Union, New Zealand, and the United States will continue to dominate global dairy exports in the coming decades. New Zealand will continue to focus on butter and whole milk powder, while the US will continue to excel in skimmed milk powder. The OECD-FAO forecast also states that dairy prices will continue to rise in nominal terms in the coming years, but the price peak of 2022 will not be reached.