Analysis Pigs & Pork
Brazil competitor for EU pork exports to the Philippines
The Philippines are importing significantly more pork this year than before. The country has been plagued by African swine fever (ASF) for almost five years, and the pig population continues to shrink due to the virus. Traditionally, the European Union has been the main beneficiary of the situation, but Brazil is now providing solid competition.
ASF has been circulating in the country for years, leaving clear traces. When the virus entered in 2019, the Philippine pig market had 12.7 million pigs. The pig population has since dropped to 9.9 million pigs. Local media reports indicate that the pig population is still decreasing. It is expected that most of this decline will occur in the coming months, as we are now entering the phase of the year when the virus activity is strongest.
In addition to the scarcity, the demand for pork is high. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that pork consumption in the country will increase by 2% to 1.58 million tons in 2025. The growth is a result of population growth and economic progress in the country. In 2024, USDA estimates consumption at 1.55 million tons.
Significant Increase in Imports
Traditionally, the Philippines import a lot of pork from the European Union in addition to their own production. When facing shortages, importers usually choose to import more meat from the EU because they have strong trade relations with European member states. This is still the case. The European Union exported over 279,000 tons of pork to the country. Only in 2022 did the European Union export more European pork to the country. Spain is the largest exporter, sending out a whopping 140,500 tons.
In recent years, the country has also been looking for cheaper alternatives, mainly found in Brazil. The South American country offers its pork at considerably lower prices, and just like in the European Union, the decrease in a significant portion of Chinese demand has created room to export more meat. The Philippines have taken advantage of this situation. The country signed a new trade agreement with Brazil this year, significantly simplifying veterinary controls. This has greatly boosted trade. The Philippines are now the largest destination for Brazilian exports. Brazilian pork exports increased by 103% to 206,000 tons.
