How our policymakers waver in energy transition

Over the past years, the specific climate and energy knowledge of our politicians has been disappointing. This led to policies being announced only to be withdrawn just as easily later on. Sophie Hermans, our new VVD climate minister, is also an example of this.

She recently faced questioning by members of the House of Representatives during a hearing, where the new ministers of the Schoof cabinet were being interrogated. The questioning revolved around how the VVD member views climate change. Her response was quite remarkable: she stated that the warm summer week at the time proved that climate change is happening.

Still investing in new nuclear power plants
A statement in the same category as our previous climate minister Rob Jetten, who declared in parliament to Joost Eerdmans that he did not know how to heat a house with nuclear energy. Therefore, he did not see the need to invest in nuclear energy. Only to decide at the end of his term to invest in new nuclear power plants.

Returning to Minister Hermans' statement, where she, like often happens, confuses the concepts of climate and weather. Nowadays, it is common practice to blame climate change for every weather event, such as a flood or storm damage. Those warm days? Climate change. That storm? Climate change. That flood? Climate change. But weather and climate are indeed two different matters.

Always outliers, both high and low
Climate is the average weather over a longer period. When the climate changes, the average weather changes. There will always be outliers, both high and low. The daily fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and so on, are what we call weather. So, although they are closely related, weather and climate are not the same. Climate is what you expect. Weather is what actually happens.

But why do politicians and policymakers keep saying that this or that disaster is caused by climate change? What they actually want to convey is a subtle message encouraging you to consider climate change important and therefore to support efforts to make the economy carbon-free.

Experts certainly believe that due to climate change on Earth, extreme weather conditions will occur more frequently, with disastrous consequences. Therefore, reducing CO2 emissions should definitely play a significant role in addressing the issue of human-induced climate change. Although such a policy also involves significant trade-offs that affect human well-being and progress. But this is not the only policy that humanity can use to cope with harmful weather changes.

Technological innovations to mitigate risks
Economic growth and technological innovation have always enabled people to adapt to extreme weather conditions. Climate scientist Bjorn Lomborg has calculated that the likelihood of someone dying from climate-related risks such as floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, and extreme temperatures has decreased by more than 99% since 1920. Scientific research is increasingly able to tell us how climate change affects the likelihood of extreme weather conditions. Unfortunately, it cannot tell us the best way to deal with them.

If only, looking at the wavering Dutch energy transition policy of the past 10 years. If our leaders had first thought and calculated calmly, they would have concluded that we should have invested in nuclear energy and grid expansion, not closed coal-fired power plants, not gradually replaced Groningen natural gas with North Sea gas, implemented a national insulation program long ago, not subsidized electric driving, and ignored biomass and hydrogen.

That policy would have certainly reduced more CO2 and would not have jeopardized our prosperity and purchasing power as it does now. We'll have to wait and see what kind of wavering policy awaits us now. The initial signs are not very positive.

Kasper Walet

Kasper Walet is a former executive board member of the agricultural futures market. For many years now, he has been working as an independent advisor on energy and climate under the name Maycroft, providing services to governments and companies worldwide.

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