Analysis Pigs

Hope for rising pig prices has faded

June 28, 2024 - Wouter Baan

The hope in the market for rising pig prices this summer is diminishing week by week. Meanwhile, it is hardly possible to speak of hope anymore. Although the supply of pigs may be tight, the uncertainty surrounding African swine fever and trade tensions with China are crippling the market.

Much has been said and written lately about the rather high expectations. But perhaps the expectations prior to the European football championship were too high, as we can conclude at the end of June. The fact is that the market outlook has been disappointing so far for almost the entire chain. Even slaughterhouses and meat processors had hoped for additional meat demand.

With the summer holidays approaching, it is no longer realistic to think that the market will significantly rise in the coming period. Especially because many slaughterhouses in Europe are under sales pressure and do not have the confidence to build up meat stocks. This is largely due to the recent outbreaks of African swine fever in Germany and the trade tensions between China and the European Union regarding import duties for electric cars, where pork has become an unintended part of the countermeasure.

Slaughter figure slightly higher
Zooming in on the current market situation in Northwestern Europe, it is noticeable that the supply of pigs is quite tight. With 276,546 slaughterings last week, the processing figure was slightly higher than the previous week and also the same period last year. Nevertheless, a further decline in supply is expected in the coming weeks, as is seasonally customary. However, the growth slowdown is not continuing, as cooler summer weather is on the way.

After the downward correction of last week, the DCA Market Price (Beursprijs 2.0) continues sideways. The price for slaughtered pigs remains unchanged at €2.16 per kilogram. The price of live pigs remains unchanged at €1.70 per kilogram.

Wouter Baan

Wouter Baan is the editor-in-chief of Farmerbusiness and a market specialist in dairy, pork, and meat at DCA Market Intelligence. He also tracks developments within the agribusiness sector and conducts interviews with CEOs and policymakers.
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